Has Medicare Advantage passed half of Medicare — and is growth slowing?
Data through Plan year 2026 (Feb 2026 enrollment) · Updated June 15, 2026
static extract
Yes — Medicare Advantage covers 50.8% of Medicare in 2026, its first majority plan year (35.2M MA vs 34.1M Original Medicare), up from 23.5% in 2010. The YoY gain of +1.2 points continues, but is below the pandemic-era pace.
50.8%
MA share of Medicare
Plan year 2026
35.2M
MA enrollees
Plan year 2026
+1.2 pts
YoY share change
2025 → 2026
MA share of Medicare, 2010–2026
Pure-MA basis (excludes cost plans and other non-MA coverage). The monthly-file MA+other basis runs ~7pts higher — both are shown on this site with their basis labeled.
Data table — annual series
| Year | MA (M) | Original (M) | MA % | SNP (M) | Avg premium | Avg MOOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 11.1 | 36.2 | 23.5% | 0.8 | $34 | $4,450 |
| 2011 | 11.8 | 36.1 | 24.6% | 0.9 | $32 | $4,350 |
| 2012 | 13.1 | 36 | 26.7% | 1.1 | $32 | $4,280 |
| 2013 | 14.4 | 36.1 | 28.5% | 1.3 | $31 | $4,220 |
| 2014 | 15.9 | 36.3 | 30.5% | 1.5 | $33 | $4,380 |
| 2015 | 17.1 | 36.5 | 31.9% | 1.7 | $33 | $4,450 |
| 2016 | 18.1 | 36.9 | 32.9% | 1.9 | $32 | $4,440 |
| 2017 | 19 | 37.3 | 33.7% | 2 | $31 | $4,400 |
| 2018 | 20.4 | 37.4 | 35.3% | 2.6 | $28 | $4,310 |
| 2019 | 22.1 | 37.5 | 37.1% | 3 | $23 | $4,200 |
| 2020 | 24.1 | 37.3 | 39.3% | 3.3 | $24 | $4,250 |
| 2021 | 26 | 38.8 | 40.2% | 3.7 | $21 | $5,091 |
| 2022 | 28.9 | 37.9 | 43.3% | 4.5 | $20 | $5,151 |
| 2023 | 31.4 | 37.1 | 45.8% | 5.7 | $20 | $5,400 |
| 2024 | 33.4 | 36.2 | 48% | 6.6 | $18 | $5,688 |
| 2025 | 34.4 | 34.9 | 49.6% | 7.3 | $16 | $5,400 |
| 2026 | 35.2 | 34.1 | 50.8% | 8.2 | $15 | $5,421 |
So what / Now what
MA crossing 50% changes the strategic frame: MA is now the default Medicare product, and CMS rate policy (V28 phase-in, benchmark changes) is calibrated to a majority program. Growth continues but the cheap conversion years are ending — enrollment gains increasingly come from other MA plans.
- Board framing: use 50.8% (2026 plan year) as the headline; cite the pure-MA basis, not the higher monthly MA+other basis.
- Forecasting: pair this trend with state runway (penetration page) — national deceleration masks wide state-level variance.
- Watch SNP mix: 8.2M SNP enrollees are the fastest-compounding slice; SNP-light portfolios are underweight the growth segment.
Provenance — National MA vs Original Medicare, 2010–2026
- Source file
- CMS Medicare Monthly Enrollment; CMS MA landscape files (historical)
- Vintage
- Plan year 2026 (Feb 2026 enrollment)
- Last updated
- June 15, 2026
- Refresh cadence
- Monthly enrollment; annual landscape
- Method
- Year-end MA and Original Medicare enrollment in millions; premiums/MOOP are enrollment-weighted plan-year averages.
- Known limitations
- Static extract pending automated pipeline. Premium/MOOP averages compiled from CMS landscape releases, not recomputed here.